Fitch puts Italy behind the blackboard, what happens now?
S & P’s confirmation Italian sovereign rating, Fitch cuts due to the macroeconomic and political uncertainty. It ‘s the confirmation that there is no great conspiracy but you need a government able to restart Italy …
Political instability and the macroeconomic outlook of Italy took its toll on the opinions of rating agencies: the first to cut the sovereign credit rating of Italy was tonight Fitch, leading to “BBB +” from “A-” with a negative outlook (which indicates that remain possible further declines in the rating) because the outcome “not decisive” of the last general elections but also the data for the fourth quarter of 2012, “confirming that the Italian is one of the deepest recessions in Europe.” Weighed heavily on the judgment of even the weather at the end of 2013, the debt / GDP ratio can reach 130% (previous estimates speak of 125%) and the fact that the risk of a weak government “to be slower and less able to respond to shocks cheap domestic or international. ”
Lovers of the theory of the “great conspiracy” will now be able to enjoy all weekend and perhaps more in long discussions about the interests that Fitch “protects” with this move, the “speculators” who have profited more before the official announcement, investment bankers who are preparing to “feast” in selling prices make “valuable pieces” of public assets and private Italian. If you like this kind of amenities do not waste your time over, you go to listen to the television or the meeting dell’imbonitore on duty and have fun, we are in a democracy as recalled yesterday the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi (that basically markets do not were too shocked by the outcome of the Italian elections).
If you love to try to understand what is happening in that universe spiteful called “reality” that just does not want to bend to wishes, dreams and various theories would be useful to remember, as he did today Bankitalia the crisis (and uncertainty, political and economic) is driving down the demand for credit as much as the reluctance of banks to lend to companies (-2.8% annual change of funding in late January from 2.2% at the end of December) and households (-0 , 6% -0.5%), despite continue the recovery of deposits (+7.7% per annum from 7% at the end of December) that is gradually rebalancing unbalanced situations existing, not fast enough, alas, to compensate for ‘further acceleration of growth in non-performing loans (+17.5% to +16.6%) and therefore give some space to the same banks to refinance the real economy.
Considering also that the coffers of Italian banks (but not only just to further disprove the theory of the “great conspiracy” would be useful to note that the major European institutional investors, such as the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund rather than insurance companies such as Allianz, had increased the ‘ exposure to Italian government bonds at the end of 2012) are chock-full of bonds tricolor (350.77 billion at the end of January, which Ctz of 34.80000000000, 50.43000000000 Bot, 55240000000 of CCT and above 200 billion BTP), the Fitch downgrade if it was imitated by other agencies (Standard & Poor’s confirmed its rating for now irrelevant considering the outcome of elections) could make it again difficult and expensive access to markets for the “funding” of lending.
The non-unanimity of judgments by both rating agencies and the “doctors” trying to find an effective cure for the crisis in the Italian economy (and European) is perhaps the best testament to how each theory “conspiracy” does not hold and how it is useless to constantly lean to other faults that are the Italians and the political class and business who have given and have maintained for decades. A class “manager” who was unable to overcome the barrier of the game vetoes among the thousands of Italian corporations, which spared only defend specific interests (their first) without any ability to look to the future of the country.
A ruling class that has tried every excuse more or less credible or childish not to accept any responsibility in this perfectly supported by the same mass of Italians who now want to “send everyone home” and “smashing everything.” A little ‘as some children who reprimanded stamp their feet on the ground and break their toys. At least the children can be educated, to go back to thinking the Italians and their representatives and urge them to approve reforms to reconvert a country increasingly good only for the most committed and waiters in a modern country overcoming the current divisions and constraints (also linked but not only in taxation, bureaucracy and crime) will be much less likely and, I suspect, much less painless. To accomplish the first step is to get back in touch with reality, the second in Europe to negotiate a path of re-ignition of growth that a relaxation, and time of a final overcoming of the policy of austerity, launching at the same time the structural reforms that need time to Italy. The premises are as I said , but the markets will not stop to look forever. Miss would be a criminal act before the crowds.
ITALIAN VERSION:
Fitch mette l’Italia dietro la lavagna, ora che succede?
Gli amanti della teoria del “grande complotto” potranno ora dilettarsi per tutto il fine settimana e forse più in lunghe discussioni circa gli interessi che Fitch “protegge” con questa mossa, gli “speculatori” che avranno lucrato di più prima dell’annuncio ufficiale, le banche d’affari che si preparano a “banchettare” vendendo a prezzi di saldo “pezzi pregiati” del patrimonio pubblico e privato italiano. Se amate questo genere di amenità non perdete tempo oltre, andate ad ascoltare la trasmissione televisiva o il comizio dell’imbonitore di turno e divertitevi, siamo in democrazia come ricordava ieri il presidente della Banca centrale europea Mario Draghi (secondo cui in fondo i mercati non sono stati troppo scossi dall’esito delle elezioni italiane).
Se invece amate provare a capire cosa stia accadendo in quell’universo dispettoso chiamato “realtà” che proprio non vuole saperne di piegarsi ad auspici, teorie e sogni vari sarebbe utile ricordare, come ha fatto oggi Bankitalia che la crisi (e l’incertezza, politica ed economica) sta facendo calare la domanda di credito almeno quanto la reticenza delle banche a prestare a imprese (-2,8% annuo la variazione dei finanziamenti a fine gennaio dal -2,2% di fine dicembre) e famiglie (-0,6% da -0,5%), nonostante prosegua il recupero dei depositi (+7,7% annuo da +7% di fine dicembre) che gradualmente sta riequilibrando situazioni squilibrate preesistenti, non abbastanza in fretta, aimè, per compensare l’ulteriore accelerazione della crescita delle sofferenze (+17,5% da +16,6%) e pertanto dare un minimo di spazio alle stesse banche per rifinanziare l’economia reale.
La non unanimità dei giudizi sia da parte delle agenzie di rating sia dei “medici” che provano a trovare una cura efficace per la crisi in cui versa l’economia italiana (ed europea) è forse la migliore testimonianza di quanto ogni teoria “complottista” non regga e di come sia inutile addossare continuamente ad altri colpe che sono degli italiani e della classe politica e imprenditoriale che si sono dati e hanno mantenuto per decenni. Una classe “dirigente” incapace di superare il gioco di sbarramento dei veti incrociati tra le mille corporazioni italiane, che ha badato a difendere solo interessi specifici (i propri anzitutto) senza alcuna capacità di guardare al futuro del paese.
Una classe dirigente che ha cercato con ogni scusa più o meno credibile o puerile di non assumersi alcuna responsabilità, in questo perfettamente supportata da quella stessa massa di italiani che ora vorrebbe “mandare tutti a casa” e “sfasciare tutto”. Un po’ come certi bambini che richiamati all’ordine battono i piedi per terra e rompono i propri giocattoli. Almeno i bambini possono essere educati, far tornare a ragionare gli italiani e i loro rappresentanti e spingerli ad approvare riforme in grado di ritrasformare un paese sempre più buono solo più per commessi e camerieri in un paese moderno superando le attuali divisioni e vincoli (legati anche ma non solo a fisco, burocrazia e criminalità) sarà molto meno facile e, temo, molto meno indolore. Per riuscirci il primo passo è tornare in contatto con la realtà, il secondo contrattare in Europa un percorso di riaccensione della crescita fatto di un allentamento, e nel tempo di un definitivo superamento, della politica di austerity, varando al contempo quelle riforme strutturali che da tempo necessitano all’Italia. Le premesse ci sono come già detto ieri, ma i mercati non rimarranno fermi a guardare in eterno. Sprecare l’occasione sarebbe un atto criminale prima che folle.
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